Even strong concepts rarely hit cash-flow positive in month one. The realistic glide path is 3-6 months to breakeven. Build the reserve before launch. Monthly fixed costs (commissary rent, insurance, truck loan, phone, software, accountant) total $3,000-$7,000 for a small truck. Multiply by 3 for minimum cushion; six months is safer. Losses come from low daily volume during ramp, over-prep and waste while you learn par levels, and marketing spend that does not immediately convert. Resist rescue moves that make it worse — discriminate lowering prices, chasing every low-paying gig, adding menu items that complicate prep without raising ticket size. Track three numbers weekly: revenue, food cost percentage, labor cost percentage. If revenue is below plan but cost percentages are at target, the unit economics are healthy — keep building demand.
- Launching with no reserve, then taking bad catering jobs at break-even to make rent.
- Cutting marketing to save cash in month two — that extends the loss period.
- Mistaking a slow ramp for a broken business and quitting at month four.